Economic research

Ongoing economic research projects on the situation of children by where they grew up | Local

What is one of the biggest predictors of a child’s success? According to an interactive map created by Opportunity Insights, a research institute founded by economics professors from Harvard and Brown universities, this could be the neighborhood they grew up in.

The “Atlas of Opportunity” uses data from the United States Census Bureau and the Internal Revenue Service, to track 20 million children in 70,000 census tracts, from infancy through adulthood.

Carly Urban, associate professor of economics at Montana State University in Bozeman, said many economists are aware of Opportunity Insights’ work. She said that looking at the household income map for all races, genders, and family income groups, Montana appears to be above the nation’s median in most counties.

“Which is pretty cool, because Montana is a low-income state,” Urban said.

Urban said the first version of the Atlas of Opportunity was created several years ago, and researchers continue to build on their research and release new versions of the map.

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Atlas categories can be modified based on parental income, child race, and child gender, and can be analyzed by county and neighborhood.

The purpose of the map is to track social mobility, and what the researchers say proves that the American Dream no longer applies to everyone. The institute says this data can help policy makers make real and lasting change to ensure that all children can progress.

What the Opportunity Atlas tracks most is social mobility, that is, the movement of individuals, families, households or other categories of people within or between social strata of the society.

There’s a lot that the Opportunity Atlas tracks, including household income, incarceration rates, teenage birth rates, high school graduation rates, and death rates. university graduation. For all data on the map, the atlas notes that there is a margin of error for each pool and outcome.

The 2014-2015 average household income for children of all genders, races, and family incomes now and in their mid-30s who grew up in Montana is highest for children raised in Daniels County at 62,000 $, which is above the nationwide median of $44,000, and the lowest in Blaine County at $38,000.

The percentage of children of all races, incomes and genders who were in prison as of April 1, 2010 and who grew up in Montana is highest in Treasure County at 4.5%, which is above the median of 1.2% of the country and less than . 1% in Meagher, Judith Basin, Golden Valley, Daniels, Sheridan, Richland, Prairie, Wilbaux, Fallon, Powder River, Carter and Crook counties.

The percentage of Montana girls who claimed a dependent born between the ages of 13 and 19 across all races and family income pools is highest in Rosebud County at 26%, which is above the median nationwide at 19%, and lowest in Fallon County at less than 0.1%.

The rate of people of all races, genders, and income groups who grew up in Montana and have a high school diploma or GED is highest in McCone and Powder River counties at over 99%, which is higher than the nationwide median of 86%, and the lowest in Granite and Glacier counties at 74%.

The percentage of kids who grew up in Montana and hold a four-year college degree — of all races, genders, and family incomes — is highest in Choteau County at 62 percent, which is above the nation’s median. 33% and the lowest in Rosebud County at 16%.

For high school and college graduation rates, data from several Montana counties were lacking.

One thing the Atlas of Opportunity shows is that in several categories, Butte-Silver Bow – which for the purposes of the atlas includes Silver Bow, Anaconda-Deer Lodge, Powell and Granite counties – is above the country’s median.

Dividing this by neighborhood, Butte-Silver Bow is divided into 13 different “areas”, which encompass all four counties.

The average household income in 2014-2015 for children who grew up in Butte-Silver Bow across all age and gender groups is $48,000, which is above the median of $44,000 for the country .

For children of all genders who grew up in low-income families growing up in Butte-Silver Bow, the expected average is $37,000, which is higher than the median of $33,000. For children from middle-income families, the expected average is $48,000, and for children from high-income families, it is $60,000. Both of these are above the income pool medians, which are $43,000 and $55,000, respectively.

The sector expected to produce the children with the lowest household income at age 35 of all incomes and gender groups is one of the two Anaconda sectors, which includes the Old Works Golf Club, Anaconda Smelter Stack, Mine Creek, Mill Creek, Staton and part of Crackerville. Children growing up in this region from birth to age 11 are expected to earn an average of $34,000 in family income by age 35, which is below the nation’s median of $44,000.

In Silver Bow County, the neighborhood bordered by Harrison Ave., Saddle Rock Road and Mt. Highland Drive is expected to produce children with the highest average household income at age 35 in Butte-Silver Bow of $63,000.

The percentage of children of all races, incomes and genders who were in prison on April 1, 2010 who grew up in Butte-Silver Bow was 0.98%, which is below the nationwide median of 1.2% . For children of all gender and racial groups from low-income families, that number is 1.6 percent, lower than the nation’s median of 2.2 percent.

For children of all races and genders from middle-income families, the incarceration rate is 0.83%, and for children from high-income families, it is 0.43%. Both of these rates are below the country medians for each group of 0.99% and 0.44%, respectively.

The incarceration rate in Butte-Silver Bow is the highest in an area of ​​Silver Bow County that includes Pioneer and Centerville. In this district, the incarceration rate is 3.3%.

The Butte-Silver Bow area with the lowest incarceration rate for these groups is a Garrison area, with an incarceration rate of less than 1%.

The percentage of Butte-Silver Bow girls who reported having a dependent born between the ages of 13 and 19 across all races and all family income brackets is 14%, which is below the median of 19% for the country.

For women of all races from low-income families, the teenage birth rate is 22%, which is below the nationwide median of 29%. For women of all races from middle-income families, the teenage birth rate in Butte-Silver Bow is the same as the rate for women of all races and all household income pools, as is the median.

Women from high-income families and of all races who grew up in Butte-Silver Bow have a teenage birth rate of 7.7%, which is lower than the nationwide median of 11%.

In Butte-Silver Bow, the teenage birth rate was highest in the Pioneer and Centerville areas at 25%. It was lowest in two areas of Silver Bow County: the Harrison Ave. area, Saddle Rock Road, and the area that includes the flower park bordered by Cobban St. The teenage birth rate in these areas is 6, 7%.

The rate of people of all races, genders, and income groups who grew up in Butte-Silver Bow and have a high school diploma or GED is 88%, which is higher than the nationwide median of 86%.

The graduation rate for children of all races and gender groups from low-income families who grew up in Butte-Silver Bow is 83%, which is above the nationwide median of 80%. For children from middle-income families, the percentage is 88%, which is above the country’s median of 87%, and for children from high-income families, the percentage is 92%, which is the median of the country. country.

The high school graduation rates in the Opportunity Atlas are not separated by neighborhood, only by county. For children of all races, genders, and family income groups, Silver Bow County has the highest graduation in Butte-Silver Bow at 90%, and Granite County has the lowest at 74%. Deer Lodge and Powell counties have high school graduation rates of 84% and 86%, respectively.

The percentage of children who grew up in Butte-Silver Bow and hold a four-year degree from all races, genders, and family incomes is 41%, which is above the nationwide median of 33%. Children growing up in Butte-Silver Bow in low-income families have a college graduation rate of 25%, which is above the national median of 17%.

Children of all race and gender pools from middle- and upper-income families growing up in Butte Silver-Bow have a college graduation rate of 35% and 52%, respectively. These rates are higher than the national median rate of 28% for children from middle-income families and 45% for children from high-income families.

Similar to high school graduation rates, college graduation rates on the Opportunity Atlas are separated by county, not by neighborhood. For children of all races, genders, and family incomes, Silver Bow County had the highest college graduation rate for children in the Butte-Silver Bow area of ​​the Atlas at 44%, and Deer Lodge County has the lowest at 31%.

Granite County and Powell County have college graduation rates of 33% and 34%, respectively.

According to the atlas, 21% of people raised in Butte-Silver Bow still lived in one of the census tracts they grew up in as adults in 2015, which is below the national median of 24%. Of the 13 areas in the region, Hall has the lowest rate of people staying in the area they grew up in at 15%, while the Anaconda area which includes the Old Works Golf Club, Anaconda Smelter Stack, Mine Creek, Mill Creek and Staten is the highest at 29% of people.